Susan Lipston.com

Unemployment claims hit their lowest level in four years in the week ending March 24. Initial claims for the week dipped to 359,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 364,000 and the lowest level since April 2008, the Employment and Training Administration reported. The four-week moving average was 365,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 368,500 — the lowest since May 2008.
 
The Administration also reported that the total number of insured unemployed workers during the week ending March 17 was 3,340,000, a decrease of 41,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,381,000. The four-week moving average was 3,387,750, a decrease of 21,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,409,500.
 
Despite gains on the job front, consumer confidence for March tapered a bit after an upswing in February, consumer analysts at the Conference Board reported last week. The Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March stood at 70.2 (a baseline of 100 was set in 1982), down from 71.6 in February. That said, the Present Situation Index — how consumers feel about current economic conditions — increased to 51.0 from 46.4. The Expectations Index — how consumers feel about where the economy is headed — declined to 83 in March from 88.4 in February.
 
“Consumer Confidence pulled back slightly in March, after rising sharply in February,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “The moderate decline was due solely to a less favorable short-term outlook, while consumers’ assessment of current conditions, on the other hand, continued to improve. The Present Situation Index now stands at its highest level in three and a half years, suggesting that despite this month’s dip in confidence, consumers feel the economy is not losing momentum.”
 
Consumers’ assessment of the job market was mixed. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 9.4 percent from 7 percent, while those stating jobs are “hard to get” also rose, to 41 percent from 38.6 percent. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 17.3 percent from 18.8 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 18.3 percent from 16.4 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes improved slightly to 15.8 percent from 15.5 percent.
 
Gross domestic product, the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States, increased at an annual rate of 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week in its third estimate. (The third estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month.)
 
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending, according to the Bureau.
 
In manufacturing, new orders for manufactured durable goods placed in February increased $4.5 billion or 2.2 percent to $211.8 billion, according to last week’s report from the Census Bureau. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $2.1 billion or 3.9 percent to $57.9 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7 percent.
 
February’s shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $206.6 billion. Once again, inventories of manufactured durable goods hit new highs in February, which was up 26 consecutive months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $373.7 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was published on in 1992.
 
This week’s financial news starts today with February construction spending from the Census Bureau. The Bureau follows up tomorrow with factory orders for February, and the auto manufacturers release their car and truck sales figures for March on Tuesday, as well.
 
Thursday, the Employment and Training Administration releases initial jobless claim totals for last week, and on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March’s unemployment rate, payrolls, hourly earnings and average workweek. The week wraps on Friday with February’s consumer credit totals from the Federal Reserve

New unemployment claims hit their lowest level in four years during the week ending March 17. Initial jobless claims filed skirted down to 348,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 353,000, the Employment and Training Administration reported. The four-week moving average was 355,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 356,250.
 
The Administration also reported that the total population of insured unemployed U.S. workers during the week ending March 10 was 3,352,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,361,000. The four-week moving average was 3,385,750, a decrease of 13,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,398,750.
 
Real estate was also a big newsmaker in last week’s economic news, with existing home sales slightly off February’s pace, but still well above the pace of a year ago, the National Association of REALTORS® reported last week. Total sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops slipped 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 4.59 million in February from an upwardly revised 4.63 million in January, but were 8.8 percent higher than the 4.22 million-unit level in February 2011, thanks to improving real estate conditions.
 
“The market is trending up unevenly, with record high consumer buying power and sustained job gains giving buyers the confidence they need to get into the market,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Although relatively unusual, there will be rising demand for both rental space and homeownership this year.”
 
Looking at price, the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $156,600 in February, up 0.3 percent from February 2011, NAR reported. Distressed homes, such as foreclosures and short sales that are sold at deep discounts, accounted for 34 percent of February sales (20 percent were foreclosures and 14 percent were short sales), down from 35 percent in January and 39 percent in February 2011.
 
Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 6-month supply in January. Even so, unsold listed inventory has trended down from a record 4.04 million in July 2007, and is 19.3 percent below a year ago.
 
Permits issued in February for construction of privately owned housing units were at an annual rate of 717,000, which was 5.1 percent over January’s revised rate of 682,000 and 34.3 percent higher than the February 2011 estimate of 534,000, the Census Bureau reported last month. Permits for single-family homes issued in February were at a rate of 472,000, which is 4.9 percent over January’s revised figure of 450,000.
 
Construction starts of privately owned housing in February were at an annual rate of 698,000, which was 1.1 percent down from January’s revised estimate of 706,000, but was 34.7 percent over the February 2011 rate of 518,000. Starts on single-family homes in February were at a rate of 457,000; this is 9.9 percent below the revised January figure of 507,000.
 
Completed constructions of private homes in February were at an annual rate of 568,000, which was 6.2 percent over January’s revised estimate of 535,000, but was 7 percent below the February 2011 rate of 611,000. Completions of single-family homes in February were at a rate of 421,000; this was 8.2 percent over the revised January rate of 389,000.
 
This week’s financial news starts off tomorrow with consumer confidence scores for March from the Conference Board. Wednesday, the Census Bureau reports on durable goods orders for February.
 
On Thursday, the Employment and Training Administration releases initial jobless claims totals for last week, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its third estimate for Q4 2011′s gross domestic product.
 
The week wraps Friday with February consumer spending and incomes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the University of Michigan releases its March consumer sentiment survey.

In the News

Unemployment numbers hit their lowest level since February 2009, coming in at 8.5% in December, according to the U.S. Labor Department. The Department also reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 jobs in December, thanks to private companies.
 
November’s gains were revised down slightly but October’s were revised up. December was the 15th consecutive month in which the economy has added jobs. Labor Department data show the biggest gains in transportation and warehousing, retail, manufacturing, health care and food services, most of which may be related to the holiday season.
 
Construction for November saw good news last week, increasing by 1.2 percent to hit an $807.1 billion annual rate, the Census Bureau reported. The November figure was 0.5 percent above the November 2010 estimate of $803.0 billion, and the monthly percentage growth beat analysts’ expectations by a whole percent.
 
Spending on private construction hit an annual rate of $522.3 billion in November, 1 percent above October’s revised rate of $517.3 billion. Residential construction increased to annual rate of $243.7 billion in November, a 2 percent gain over October’s revised rate of $238.9 billion.
 
Car and truck sales saw big movement in December, with U.S. auto makers selling 1.2 million cars and light trucks during the month, analysts at Autodata Corp. reported last week. This marked an 8.7 percent gain from December 2010, and in total, 2011′s tally of car and truck sales hit 12.8 million, a 10.3 percent gain over 2010. December also was the fourth consecutive month in which the sales pace rang in at more than 13 million units.
 
In manufacturing, new orders for manufactured goods in November increased by 1.8 percent to $8.2 billion following two consecutive monthly decreases, the Census Bureau reported last week. Transportation was a key growth sector, but without it new orders still increased 0.3 percent.
 
Shipments for manufacturers continued a six-month gain, increasing $0.1 billion to $455.0 billion. Unfilled orders, up 19 of the last 20 months, increased $11.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $898.3 billion. This put the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio at 6.16, up from 6.07 in October.
 
Inventories, up 25 of the last 26 months, increased again in November by $2.8 billion, or 0.5 percent, to $609.8 billion — the highest level since the series was published in 1992. The historic gain put the inventories-to-shipments ratio at 1.34, up from 1.33 in October.
 
This week’s slate of financial news releases starts today with consumer credit data for November from the Federal Reserve. The Census Bureau follows tomorrow with the November wholesale inventories.
 
On Thursday, the Employment and Training Administration releases initial jobless claims for last week. Also on Thursday, the Census Bureau will release December retail sales data and business inventories.
 
The Bureau will follow that on Friday with November’s trade balance data and December’s export and import prices. The Treasury Department will finish up the week with the release of its December budget.